Tiankang Biological (002100) 2019 Interim Report Review： Stable Main Business Sow Inventory Increases Steadily
Tiankang Biological (002100) 2019 Interim Report Review: Stable Main Business Sow Inventory Increases Steadily
The main business of the company ‘s vaccine, feed, and agricultural product processing is limited by the impact of the disease. It is expected to remain stable in 19/20. The pig breeding layout in Xinjiang and Henan has obvious geographical advantages. It has a 都市夜网 deterministic alternative to the company.The prediction is 0.
27 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Matters: The company achieved operating income of 27 in 2019H1.
1 billion, an increase of 18 in ten years.
72%; net profit attributable to mothers is 80 million yuan, a decrease of 25.
96%; our opinion on this is as follows: farming, corn processing business dragged down, H1 profits fell.
In terms of business, animal vaccines are still the main source of profit. Driven by technology transfer income and pig OA two-valent vaccines, they achieved revenue in the first half of the year.
500 million, an increase of 10 in ten years.
90%, predicted profit contribution of 55 million to 75 million; feed business is driven by Xinjiang pig feed, poultry feed, annual revenue in the first half of the year +16.
45%, 杭州桑拿网 business profit 40-50 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 40% -50%; affected by the Henan epidemic at the beginning of the year, Xinjiang epidemic in April-May, the company’s pig breeding forecast in the first half of the year reached 15-25 million.
In addition, due to the downturn in breeding, the company’s preliminary corn storage and storage business is estimated to be 10 million to 20 million.
The ability to breed sows has increased steadily, and the profitability of breeding has accelerated.
According to the report baseline, the company’s biological assets are 58.28 million, -10% per year, + 15% month-on-month. It is predicted that the company can breed sows at the end of June to 3.
As the epidemic situation in Henan stabilizes, the company’s pig houses under construction are being completed successively, and hog production is steadily progressing, we estimate that the breeding sow inventory will try to rise quarter by quarter, effectively supporting the 1.5 to 2 million heads plan in 2020.
The current pig price has entered a stage of rapid growth, and the average profit of fat pig heads in the company’s Xinjiang region has exceeded 1,000 yuan. It is expected that the profit contribution of Q3 / Q4 breeding will increase.
The vaccine awaits the inflection point of pigs, and pays attention to the progress of non-blast vaccines.
Eliminating the impact of technology transfer business income, the company’s animal vaccine revenue in the first half of the year decreased by 15% -20%, mainly due to the drag of the live pig inventory.
With the industry’s ability to multiply the sow inventory, it is expected to achieve a Q4 pick-up, and increase the market price of swine OA second-price seedlings, and heavy products such as swine fever E2. We estimate that the company’s swine vaccine business will improve in 2020.
In addition, as a leader in the industry’s political and legal picking of vaccines, the company is also expected to benefit from the commercialization of non-blast vaccines in the future.
Risk factors: The epidemic has spread widely, breeding costs have increased significantly, and pig prices have risen less than expected.
Investment suggestion: The main business of the company ‘s vaccine, feed, and agricultural product processing is limited by non-pesticidal effects. It is expected to remain stable in 19/20. The layout of live pig farming in Xinjiang and Henan is obvious. The location advantage is obvious, and the deterministic barrier is hindered. The 21-year EPS forecast is 0.
27 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.